Prediction markets have resonated with me since I started in crypto 12 yrs ago. It was initially bc I was a degen & wanted quick cash. Now I’m using prediction markets daily not to bet but as an info consumer to better understand the world. Augur, Veil & others failed. Polymarket now working. How can we accelerate?
skininthegame
Prediction markets that allow people to gain indirect exposure to private companies via publicly verifiable and hard-to-fake metrics. E.g. go long Farcaster by betting on Warpcast DAU growth.
skininthegame1000% - so excited about prediction markets.
skininthegame
Excited about making prediction markets feel more like a game and working on a consumer friendly UX
skininthegame
Why do you think Augur and Veil didnt work previously while Polymatket worked?
skininthegame
Prediction markets are the best way for me to see what is likely going to happen in the future!
skininthegameThe stock market is a prediction market on the future value of companies, and it’s often irrational and inaccurate, especially around emotionally charged topics. Won’t prediction markets suffer the same fate?
skininthegame
Really bullish on bracket.game been participating in testnet a lot of fun. Really cool social aspects can't wait for full launch. @tldr
skininthegame
💯 Started playing with manifold last year, thinking of moving to polymarket now (to place bets)
skininthegame
i expect any market that gets big enough to get shut down by the US govt. whats different about polymarket that makes it work?
skininthegamebeen trying to wrap my head around: 1) does it matter that someone bets on the underdog because the potential payout is outsized, not because they believe they’ll win? 2) how is a "prediction market" different from sports betting? isn’t it just a fancy term to describe the same thing wrt other aspects of society?
skininthegame
With frames, could you cast a particular prediction market to get it more visibility and let people enter that market via the frame?
skininthegame
Its currently a pretty big market on the sports side (draftkings at 15b valuation, ~50 million users), but i'm excited to see prediction markets for all aspects of life. I like your thoughts on using it to better understand the world. In a sea of clickbait info, it provides 'value' and 'confidence' to information.
skininthegame
For a prediction market to succeed, it is essential to ensure unrestricted market creation and decentralized settlement of wagers. Otherwise, it will be similar to some betting company with crypto deposits.
skininthegame
Figure out how to build some leveraged degen protocol on top, and make markets that resolve a lot faster. Cuz: 1) people like to make multiples, 2) people don't like to wait very long.
skininthegame
Used all of them, maybe the very first user of all of them :). Poly is good now, but Augur was one of if not the only trustless solution here. Quite strange to see that funders stopped funding the project. Despite the fact that Augur didnt receive enough traction, it was a unique project that had no analogues.
skininthegame
Do you think there a chance that Augur will continue development somehow? Maybe funders come back or donate the remaining funds to the developers/team who want to do this? Would like to see Augur on фтщерук chain with cheap and fast transactions.
skininthegame
Polymarket Plug-in that allows you to see related prediction markets to the content on your Twitter feed, linked to your account with an ability to make a bet from the feed itself.
skininthegame
Reduce regulation and the issue of assassination markets.
skininthegame
I’m currently working on a more simple and social focused interface for prediction markets. I’ve been using Polymarket and was a big fan behind the idea of Augur and Omen. Looking to get more feedback and learn more about how we can embed prediction markets with the attention economy (like farcaster).
skininthegame
The social aspect of prediction markets really appears to be what is key - mobile betting platforms capitalize on this well. It's an augmentation of the typical watching experience + local social behavior + ecosystem around it (podcasts, youtube, etc)
skininthegame
An IPFS frontend so people are not geo-blocked.
skininthegame