that means nothing in Taleb‘s frame. And also, as you like to say: we can‘t rerun history to produce the counterfactuals. What if he didn‘t get to build PayPal? Would he be equally successful and attributed for it? Or was he just lucky?
He got JD and are good buddy with peter thiel before paypal. So will probably be doing okay if paypal didnt happen ser
Most progress in society comes from reasonably good approximations made by people in the arena, not perfectly verifiable truths. A much simpler rule of thumb to apply here — don’t take advice about building successful businesses from a man who has only failed at it