is regulation the major reason why prediction markets haven't taken off more in the US? Or some other factor? I know polymarket got shut down in the US last year bc they didn't have the proper licensing cc @nick would love to hear your perspective
That’s the stated reason but seems that most people aren’t interested in a futarchy future. Kalshi volumes still very small.
Honestly, I think it’s because no prediction market that I’ve found has been that fun?? I know gigabrains love them, but man is it boring to bet on “is inflation 0.4% or 0.5%” If you find a core group of wild, ideally LIVE events then extend into longer duration bets while maintaining hype maybe it starts to
It does seem to a lot like launching a gambling service, or at least perceived that way. If one wanted to launch one, I suspect there are safer jurisdictions to choose from.
The suppression of Prediction Markets is a popular topic amongst the Rationalist community, LessWrong has many posts talking about them & Scott Alexander routinely talks about them on his Substack
Hasu on prediction markets: https://insights.deribit.com/market-research/the-problem-with-prediction-markets/ tldr; there is no reason to bet on most outcomes.
seems to have a lot to do with a current lack of PMF. speculation today seems well-enough served esp. by betting apps but also non-crypto prediction tools (i.e. Metaculus). Also w/o the liquidity, regulatory, other issues. Thus far prediction markets seem more like a cool academic idea than a massive consumer biz.