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In reply to @borodutch
paulx.eth@paulx
6/25/2023

from your vantage point, how would you rate the 'wisdom of the crowd'? https://polymarket.com/event/russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner (this cast is late, prediction markets are in favor of Putin coming out on top) one follow up question -- would you expect others try to do what Prigozhin has done?

In reply to @paulx
borodutch 👈👈😎@borodutch
6/25/2023

see "supercarcasters" for the wisdom of the crowd and why the crowd should be correct :)) i wouldn't say that the scenario was putler's win — prigozhin literally got to <100km to Moscow without any resistance except for some trenches dug and putler had to pardon all of the people involved lol

In reply to @paulx
borodutch 👈👈😎@borodutch
6/25/2023

as for whether others would try — predicting irrational russia is close to impossible, they don't make sense wagner was the only capable military in russia, so probably noone else can even try — but i might as well be horribly wrong here