Will the accelerated future be like cyberpunk 2077, or like something else? What exponential change do most people not see?
That if the IQ-analogue of an AGI grows exponentially, it wonât be âoh, this machine is good enough to do most of my workâ, itâll be âthis machine is good enough to make all political decisions, scientific discoveries, and artistic creations on behalf of mankind, and weâre better off standing asideâ.
Also, may I recommend a couple of seminal books on the topic in case you arenât familiar with them? Theyâre old now, but they address your question. Ed Regisâ âThe Great Mambo Chickenâ and Ray Kurzweilâs âThe Age of Spiritual Machinesâ.
probably not. capitalism selects for perfect competition & commoditization over time, +EV will shift from soft tech to hard tech, probably accelerating jevon's paraxox w/ fuel cost, manufacturability becomes extremely localized & less mainstream branding/marketing. fiction/religion doesn't like no-conflict stories.
This is what I most expect: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyNHoTWWAJ5eb99ji/another-outer-alignment-failure-story