All In Pod cast: Friedberg’s mental model for how the US dollar loses reserve status (mostly Ray Dalio) makes me question all of his science takes. Not a Chamath fan, but his model seems Zeihanist and correct.
What was the TLDR of his take? Always considered Friedburg the most sane and reasonable of the crew (not the smartest tho)
I wouldn't write off someone's science takes based on their macro-economic takes. Macro is notoriously difficult to apply the scientific method to because of the lack of counterfactuals. Fwiw I thought that Friedberg and Chamath were more in agreement than in disagreement: that debts and deficits need to be reduced
I alternate between finding Chamath insightful and disingenuous/self serving.
A recent paper from the fed analyzing why geopolitics won’t be a contributor to this in the short term at least: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1359.pdf
His recent comment about decentralization in DeFi/crypto was a mid take on the all in pod on the episode before.
I read his take as more probabilistic than something that is certain. Read it as: Should you prepare for something that has an outside chance of happening? USD is strong but it’s not a crazy thought that it might not always be
Well put. One interesting thing is how widespread adoption of modern monetary theory may have been the idea virus that caused this whole thing
the dollar wont loose all its value, for as long as the goverment and the fed exist, since its their job. however it will devalue a lot against other currencies but imo still will be above all
discovered Zeihan through one of your casts - besides YouTube, what of his do you recommend?
I just don’t understand how it is net positive for them to be on a podcast where they are fairly open about their beliefs in a wide range of topics, as people with lots of current and future business/investment/political exposure.