It's been a while since I went on a threadoor moment. Here's the spicy take: @balajis is right. But what he's off about is the endgame. Here's the Cassie crystal ball tea ๐ฎ๐ต and you can bet it comes back full circle to my grander theory of crypto. We're going to start from right now, and work forward 40 years.
At this point, everyone has heard the $1MM bet. And to be fair to Balaji, clearly no, Bitcoin won't reach $1MM in 90 days. But what is going to happen is a mass capital exodus as panic sets in once the curtains are pulled back and people see the emperor (banks) has no clothes (money).
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Strong general premise. I expect this will play out over a few cycles of creative destruction, and not linearly. Perhaps in my lifetime.
One milly in 90 days will only create a massive disproportion of coin distribution imo. Especially with a deflationary asset that becomes a bigger problem. Itโs a hardcore version of 1% against 99. I prefer gradual rise over time (years).
Interesting perspective! My main concern re: Bitcoin is that, IIRC because of PoW, it's relatively cheap to attack. And if you have countries with vast amounts of money, like the US or China which don't like BTC, they might not only outlaw off ramps and holding but also spend a few billy to do 51%.
Thanks for the fun read! How long do you think this will take to play out?
@balajis is testing btc. Imagine this , if fed is printing so bad , and yet we do not hyperinflate and BTC didnโt turn out to be safe asset in this particular case - the whole test case for BTC fails . We do not have to wait for years to find out ?
Tell me how Iโm wrong. The dominoes are falling https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1638659841358004225
Damn Cassie, this is one hell-of-a thread! I think you're on to something.
โMay you live in interesting timesโ thatโs actually a curse btw
this is awesome. also where do we learn more about quilibrium ๐
