If you had to bet who the leader in search is in 10 years, is it nascent AI tech (DALLE/GPT-3/Stable Diffusion) or Google?
Iβd bet on AI fragmenting the search market into many search markets
None of the above. Decentralize search and discovery.
Google because they are inventing the lowest level AI primitives
AI tech but Google is strong in AI and saving search ad revenue is their priority so they might keep up.
Dark horse: TikTok. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/technology/gen-z-tiktok-search-engine.html
The question is, will anyone do better than Google at incorporating these technologies to search? Because they are moving as fast as anyone else. Have you seen T5? The barrier to entry is processing all the relevant content on the internet as it is created. Google already has that. AI is a higher layer.
Googles Imagen is going to last in my opinion, however I think that stable diffusion was able to raise plenty of money to where it wonβt matter
Google for general purpose search but other LLM models for verticals with deep integrations (some of which might be also Google depending on the vertical)
Google. Existing search infra, customer base and experience to do deep vertical integration.
Was (pleasantly?) surprised how many folks believe Google will continue to be the leader. I used to feel like this ~6 months ago, but as I thought through 1) where GOOG is as a company (its more Day 2 than Day 1), and 2) what the future modality of search looks like (it wont be a browser), I kinda changed my mind.
Would think itβs more of a combo of both, I expect google adopts some of the nascent AI tech
IMO Google. I think they have taken what is likely to become the biggest disruption risk to their business and embraced it wholeheartedly. I think we'll see them introduce GPT-3/stable diffusion etc technologies within their existing search tools within months. It doesn't mean there won't be other winners as well.
by search here do you mean question answering or do you mean finding a thing you think might exist (like an old article)?
Absolutely AI tech. There are going to be so many remixes and modifications. The best search results will be an amalgamation across the spread of options. Google Search has already fallen behind. But Google themselves are investing so much in that space that they will certainly still be in the running.