Is the spread between the 2 month T-Bill vs. the 1 month T-Bill telling us that we are likely to see a US default?
I would guess that the market is worried about the debt ceiling in early June. That’s in more than a month and less than 2 months from now. That would explain higher demand for the 1 month treasury bill
If we don’t see another downgrade by Moody, or others, “Pack your bags honey we’re leaving for eternal summer”. You have any thoughts?
I don't know anything but according to this site the current CDS prices imply probability is less than 1%. http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/united-states/5-years/
Woah - thought this was a data error for sure... Definitely debt ceiling but feels like an overreaction? V interesting nonetheless