In reply to @timdaub
Dan Romero@dwr
3/18/2023 In this situation, people are going to reinforce their belief based on priors. :)

In reply to @dwr
tim 🥝@timdaub

yeah ok but his betting math is still silly and it seems he slipped. That’s independent of the bet. The more unlikely outcome has the better odds and he overpaid. The bet is interesting but the set up is wrong or not?