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In reply to @pmarca
Marc Andreessen@pmarca
11/25/2022

(D) In the spirit of "experts have predicted 9 of the last 2 recessions", there were many other temporary hits to tech stocks both before and after the big 2000 crash. It is not at all obvious which hits are temporary or significant until you see how they play out.

In reply to @pmarca
Marc Andreessen@pmarca
11/25/2022

Generally, ~everyone acquitted themselves poorly. VCs overinvested in the boom, underinvested in the bust. Public investors bought high, sold low. CEOs bled their companies out over time instead of taking their medicine up front. The press was overly positive before, and then went psychotic after and never recovered.

In reply to @pmarca
John Grant@jlg
11/25/2022

My sense is that the next GFC will be twofold. A sovereign debt crisis, compounded by a technical debt crisis.